The run-in, permutations and possibilities

[RonnieGibbs'forearm]

20 points up for grabs.
Leeds can get a max of 46 points.
So mathematically we need 6 wins from 10 to win the league.

Got to think Wakey x2, Catalans would be the most definite of wins so would need 3 from:
Hull
Salford x2
Wigan
Saints
Hudds
Leeds

As mentioned elsewhere we will probs need less.
Leeds play: Salford(A) Hull(H) Wigan(A)
If we beat Wakey, Salford and Catalans in next 3 and Leeds lose 1-2 of those, then we draw Leeds first up and beat them it would mean they would be out of contention after 1 game of the 8s.
Hull (more realistic challengers) play:
Saints(A) Leeds(A) Hudds(H).
CC SF is week after final league game. If they rest players then Hudds win is a distinct possibility as they are an improving side.
I hope Hull get to wembley as it defintely affected their run in last season.
I see them losing one of final 3 and at least one in Super 8s. That would give them a max of 41 points.
So I think 7+ more points could very well secure it for us. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that the LLS could be over and done with 5 games left.
But this is Cas we're talking about. The built in pessimism is still under the surface. Could we blow it from here? Could winning it that early have any negative side effects?
What do people think?

[SuffolkTiger]

All the above is on my mind this morning (... don't tell Mrs ST...)

We are in such a fantastic position and that seems to influencing the view of many experts and "experts" in terms of how the next 3 months pan out.

The extra mongrel we have displayed in the last 2 wins has given me much more confidence that we have what it takes to go all the way. We have to be gritty and keep our defence really tight. We know that we can score points against any side.

It's actually down to us now and we have the biggest influence on the outcome. That's what scares me....!!

[nottinghamtiger]

I think we won the LLS trophy in Friday.
Mathematically its eight points so we can be caught, but in reality with the super 8 system in place points will be distributed amongst the chasing pack.
The only danger is if Leeds or Salford beat us, everyone else and we go on a losing streak.
I think we'll have it wrapped up with a few games to go so we can rest some bodies.
I'd also be resting Gale, Hardaker and McMeekan for the trip to Catalans. Leave them at home with their feet up and give them a two-week break.

[RonnieGibbs'forearm]

Yes it will probably be somewhere in between. Winning it with 2-3 games left would be ideal. The worry is that other teams begin to peak and are playing knock-out blood and thunder cup ties to keep/get in the 4 and so build psychologically at the right time, where we could be in a mindset of rest and recovery and need to pull ourselves up to that level for a one off semi final at end of year. But maybe the stars are aligning for us...

[North Leeds Tiger]

I don't think I would rest anyone against Catalans, my reasoning is to get as many points as possible on the board early until we win win the LLS then when we have that rest up key players before the home semi

[RonnieGibbs'forearm]

I don't think I would rest anyone against Catalans, my reasoning is to get as many points as possible on the board early until we win win the LLS then when we have that rest up key players before the home semi

I agree. Go all out and aim to win next 3 as these could be easiest fixtures we face. That would put us on 40 points going into split.

[InTheKnow]

Due to our far superior points difference we are basically 5 wins clear with 10 to play. Meaning if we only won 3.... Teams would have to win at least 7. Even 7 through now and super 8s would be tough.

[RonnieGibbs'forearm]

Due to our far superior points difference we are basically 5 wins clear with 10 to play. Meaning if we only won 3.... Teams would have to win at least 7. Even 7 through now and super 8s would be tough.

Yes esp seeing as though the 3 main challengers have eyes on CC too. Salford v Hull final would be ideal for me.

[stuey]

Why do we need to rest anyone in any match?

We have a rest week in three weeks time for the Cup semis, then another one 3 weeks later for the Cup Final. How many more weeks rest do the players want. To much rest and the players can get stale.

If and when we are mathematically certain of the LLS then maybe rest some of the forwards, but even then it may not be needed.

We play 3 weeks, rest 1 week, play 3, rest 1, play 4, before the GF semis and Final. If we have won the LLS, the week before the GF play-off match, possibly rest some then, but no need before that.

[RonnieGibbs'forearm]

Why do we need to rest anyone in any match?

We have a rest week in three weeks time for the Cup semis, then another one 3 weeks later for the Cup Final. How many more weeks rest do the players want. To much rest and the players can get stale.

If and when we are mathematically certain of the LLS then maybe rest some of the forwards, but even then it may not be needed.

We play 3 weeks, rest 1 week, play 3, rest 1, play 4, before the GF semis and Final. If we have won the LLS, the week before the GF play-off match, possibly rest some then, but no need before that.

Very true. Those are well placed rest breaks.

[nottinghamtiger]

I'd give Gale, Hardaker and McMeekan a rest against Catalans because:
They haven't had a week off this season.
It gives them a two week break as it's the cup semi finals the weekend after.
We won without them at Huddersfield, and I'd fancy our chances of beating Catalans without them too.
Catalans seem to employ grubby tactics. Whilst I don't want any of our players injured, why expose our star players when there is little need to do so?
All in all, I'd give them two weeks and get them primed for the super 8s.

[TheSheriff]

The closest team to Cas needs to win 5 games more at this point that is very unlikely. It would take the mother of all injury crisis's or an epic choke to not finish top at this point.

[Scoopage]

I'd give Gale, Hardaker and McMeekan a rest against Catalans because:
They haven't had a week off this season.
It gives them a two week break as it's the cup semi finals the weekend after.
We won without them at Huddersfield, and I'd fancy our chances of beating Catalans without them too.
Catalans seem to employ grubby tactics. Whilst I don't want any of our players injured, why expose our star players when there is little need to do so?
All in all, I'd give them two weeks and get them primed for the super 8s.

Gale and hardaker rested v saints at home.its all about upto the conditioning team and the player themselves whether they need rest.we need full strength out with 2 games left in super 8s imo.then your fully rolling into the semi

[InTheKnow]

Sorry. Worked my last post out wrong. Salford, Leeds and Hull are all 5 wins behind us due to our points difference.

If we only won 3 from 10......

Salford, Leeds and Hull would have to win 8 from 10 to go above us. Major ask in the remaining games and super 8s that is.

I do however hope they win enough games to keep Wigan out of it who are only 3 wins behind Hull after today's results.

[stuey]

Agree re Wigan. They always peak at the seasons end. A very dangerous side if they get into the last 4 play-offs. Very likely winners of both the Cup and Grand Final. Keep them out of the top 4 and it will improve our chances a lot.

[duke street 10]

Agree re Wigan. They always peak at the seasons end. A very dangerous side if they get into the last 4 play-offs. Very likely winners of both the Cup and Grand Final. Keep them out of the top 4 and it will improve our chances a lot.

Yes Wigan could very easily go on a run to the top 4. They are getting injured players back and have the been there/done that experience. It would help us if they and Hull made the Challenge Cup final and battered each other for 80 minutes!

[fords]

Agree re Wigan. They always peak at the seasons end. A very dangerous side if they get into the last 4 play-offs. Very likely winners of both the Cup and Grand Final. Keep them out of the top 4 and it will improve our chances a lot.

Yes Wigan could very easily go on a run to the top 4. They are getting injured players back and have the been there/done that experience. It would help us if they and Hull made the Challenge Cup final and battered each other for 80 minutes!

Wigan and Saints will do well to make the top 4 from where they are, given who they have to play.

More likely to see a Hull v Wigan CC final i think

[StevieTheTV]

I'd also be resting Gale, Hardaker and McMeekan for the trip to Catalans. Leave them at home with their feet up and give them a two-week break.

That would effectively give them 3 weeks off as the CC weekend is in there aswel.

I wouldn't be resting anyone until we've got the LLS wrapped up.

[fords]

I'd also be resting Gale, Hardaker and McMeekan for the trip to Catalans. Leave them at home with their feet up and give them a two-week break.

That would effectively give them 3 weeks off as the CC weekend is in there aswel.

I wouldn't be resting anyone until we've got the LLS wrapped up.

Too long off they will be rusty. If were going to rest them (not that they should need it as we now have 2 free weekends i'd do it when we play Catalan in 2 weeks time assuming we win the next 2.

They then have a week off in July and August before the Semi & GF come round.

[duke street 10]

Lets face it Catalans are a grubby team,if they need the 2 points to make the super 8s they will stop at nothing to get the result. I'd rest the likes of Gale,Hardaker,McShane & Millington if thats the case.

I think last season the players got time off around the Wembley final, seemed to work for them as they did well results wise in the Super 8s, i'm guessing the coaching staff will do the same this year.